Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
