A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
